Author: Peter Amrhyn

Will 2025 be a milestone for digital trust? These four trends indicate it

The start of a new year is always a good time to reflect on the previous year and consider what the next one might bring. While 2024 was a pretty eventful one, 2025 is set to be just as exciting. Some major developments will significantly impact digital trust and IT security. We have identified four key trends shaping the sector in the new year.

 

1. Security in a (post) quantum world

Asymmetric cryptography, omnipresent on the Internet and in the digital world today, could be attacked by advanced quantum computers. The system uses an algorithm to generate a public key from a private key, and only the public key is transmitted over the Internet. The connection between the private and public key is established using complex mathematical operations that are difficult to reverse. This can be, for example, the multiplication of very large prime numbers. This calculation is simple. However, the reverse prime factorization of the result is very complex. Encryptions used today are based on the fact that the most powerful conventional computers cannot perform such calculations in a reasonable amount of time. However, this could change with the advent of quantum computers, suddenly making it possible to calculate private keys from public keys.

Digital documents, such as those to be stored in an ID wallet that the EU is currently developing, would also function according to the pattern of asymmetric cryptography. The idea is that anyone can check them with a public key, but only authorized persons with private keys can issue them.

Cryptographic compromise could be a huge potential threat in the future, and more organizations are including quantum computing attacks on their risk maps. In 2025, the development of secure post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) environments will be a key priority, in line with the new developments associated with the implementation of NIS2. As PQC affects the entire IT stack, it is not only a technical challenge but also a business challenge and, therefore, needs to be treated with great attention.

2. Certifications in the eIDAS context

The crucial phase of implementing the revised eIDAS regulation will start next year. The relevant committees will decide on the future characteristics of identification procedures and remote signatures. A decision on Qualified Attribute Attestations is also expected around May. The EU ID wallet will also remain in the spotlight, especially as national implementation is now on the agenda. However, companies will increasingly focus on the wallets and look for ways to offer added value to their customers. Access to data and its aggregation will play an important role. As the public sector does not have sufficient resources, certified private providers such as Trust Service Providers can also play a vital role.

3. Trustful AI interaction

As AI becomes more pervasive in everyday life, criminal and fraudulent uses of the technology are on the rise. The public is particularly aware of deepfake videos, which are used to spread fake news, among other things. However, AI-generated content could also be used for identity fraud and theft if appropriate countermeasures are not taken.

In 2025, companies and institutions will be increasingly concerned about distinguishing genuine content from AI-generated content reliably. An electronic signature for images and videos could play an important role in affirming their authenticity. More generally, cross-platform certificates will be required to ensure trustworthy transactions in AI environments.

4. Zero trust for consumers

The zero-trust approach is a well-known concept in business. B2B interests have typically driven such initiatives. Companies prioritize protecting themselves against potential security breaches, such as phishing attacks. This is achieved through granular rights assignment and multi-factor authentication (MFA). However, the threat of online fraud extends beyond the workplace, with an increasing number of private individuals falling prey to targeted attacks. Consumers are seeking to identify which communication channels they can still trust.

This indicates that companies will need to prioritize authenticity in the coming year. Electronic seals can effectively enable consumers to distinguish whether an email is genuine from the company in question or a phishing attempt. The demand for verifiable authenticity will also grow in person-to-person communication, leading to increased use of electronic signatures across various communication channels. Trust service providers possess the necessary technologies and will play a pivotal role in developing secure digital communication channels.

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